The Pirates and A’s Are MLB’s Lopsided Dark Horses

If you’re looking for candidates to end an extended playoff drought in the 2026 MLB season, some squinting is required. Of the 12 teams with the highest FanGraphs playoff probabilities as of Opening Day, nine made the playoffs last season, 11 made it within the past two seasons, and all 12 made it as recently as 2023. (The Rangers, who have the longest active playoff drought among these favored dozen, won the World Series that year.) Of the teams with the top 20 playoff probabilities, 19 have tasted October within the past three seasons. Meanwhile, of the eight MLB teams that haven’t made the playoffs in that span, most are locks to tack one more year onto their total.