Will Artificial Intelligence Hit a Wall?

For an industry built on predicting the future, artificial intelligence has proven remarkably bad at predicting its own limitations. In November 2024, OpenAI—the company that launched the AI boom with ChatGPT—discovered that its next-generation model Orion showed only modest improvements over its predecessor. As reported by The Information, the new model’s “increase in quality was far smaller compared with the jump between GPT-3 and GPT-4,” despite massive additional investment in computing power and training data.