Reality vs. the ‘Experts’ in College Football

Another exciting college football season is in its stretch run, and on Sunday a 13-member “expert” committee will decree which teams will receive the four highly coveted bids to the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl, and hence to the sport’s playoff. While one hopes that the most deserving teams will be rewarded, rule by “experts” often leaves one scratching one’s head—or struggling to breathe in oxygen through one’s mandated mask.

The Anderson & Hester College Football Computer Rankings (which Chris Hester and I co-created) were part of college football’s Bowl Championship Series (BCS) throughout its 16-year run, before that system was replaced by a four-team playoff chosen by committee. The committee and the Anderson & Hester Rankings currently have the same teams in the top four, but in a different order. The committee ranks Georgia #1, Michigan #2, Washington #3, and Florida State #4. The Anderson & Hester Rankings flip Georgia and Washington, with Michigan remaining #2.

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