Even experts on the subject could be forgiven for holding the mistaken view that natural disasters have gotten significantly more frequent, intense and deadly as a result of climate change. “Weather-Related Disasters Skyrocketed Fivefold Over Past 50 Years,” reads a canonical climate headline from this past year. “Deadly Indian heatwave made 30 times more likely by climate crisis,” reads another. “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator,” said United Nations Secretary General Antonio Gutteres at November’s annual international climate negotiations. But these claims are more like Chicken Little-ism than truth: In reality, the frequency of natural disasters has not increased globally.