More Red than Green

There are approximately 1.5 billion personal automobiles in the world, give or take a few hundred million. Before the pandemic, annual new auto sales were running at around seventy-five million a year. Thus it takes about twenty years for the world’s car fleet to turn over; longer, in fact, because some new sales replace relatively new vehicles while some older vehicles can remain in service for decades. And with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) still making up less than 5 percent of total vehicle sales, gasoline will be the king of the road for a long time to come, even in the world’s most advanced economies. Like the Bob Dylan song says, “The Times, They Are a-Changin’” — but very slowly.